As Spain mourns the deaths of at least 158 people in catastrophic floods, the latest global stocktake on the climate health crisis underscores the harsh reality that rising temperatures and increasing greenhouse gas emissions mean these devastating events will become ever more common.
Despite years of monitoring exposing the imminent health threats of climate inaction, the world has persistently failed to adequately adapt to the rapidly growing health threats of climate change, according to the 2024 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change.
It warns of “unprecedented” challenges to peoples’ health and survival from climate change, detailing wide-ranging health impacts as well as limits to adaptation.
“The growing accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is pushing the world to a future of increasingly dangerous health hazards and reducing the chances of survival of vulnerable people all around the globe,” it says.
“As concerning records continue to be broken and people face unprecedented risks from climate change, the wellbeing, health, and survival of individuals in every country now hang in the balance.”
The Lancet Countdown report, building on the expertise of 122 leading researchers from UN agencies and academic institutions worldwide, reveals the most concerning findings yet in the collaboration’s eight years of monitoring.
It says that progress towards meeting the Paris Agreement goals has been concerningly inadequate. Persistent failure to implement the necessary structural changes has pushed emissions to their highest level yet, with fossil fuels accounting for 67 percent of greenhouse gas emissions in 2022.
Culpability
The report underscores the culpability of fossil fuels industry in threatening peoples’ health and survival. Global energy-related CO2 emissions reached an all-time high in 2023, and most oil and gas companies are further expanding their fossil fuel production plans.
Health systems are also increasingly contributing to the problem. Greenhouse gas emissions from healthcare increased by 36 percent since 2016, making health systems increasingly unprepared to operate in a net zero emissions future and pushing healthcare further from its guiding principle of doing no harm.
The Lancet report comes in the same week as the biennial report on Australia’s State of the Climate Australia’s climate says our climate has warmed by an average of 1.51 (± 0.23 °C) since national records began in 1910, resulting in increased events such as extreme heat, heavy rainfall, coastal inundation, fire weather and drought.
Commenting on the report, Climate Council Fellow, GP and mental health expert Associate Professor Grant Blashki stressed the mental health toll of climate change.
“We’re seeing direct effects from more frequent and intense heatwaves, which research shows can worsen mental health issues and even contribute to an increase in suicidal behaviours,” he said.
“On top of that, there’s a growing sense of existential stress, especially in young Australians as they grapple with predictions of future climate change and what it means for them.
“At a time when cost-of-living pressures are already straining many Australians, climate change compounds the problem.”
Transformation needed
Following decades of delays in climate change action, avoiding the most severe health impacts of climate change now requires aligned, structural, and sustained changes across most human systems, including energy, transportation, agriculture, food, and healthcare, says The Lancet report.
Importantly, a global transformation of financial systems is required, shifting resources away from the fossil fuel-based economy towards a zero emissions future.
Putting people’s health at the centre of climate change policy making is key to ensuring this transition protects wellbeing, reduces health inequities, and maximises health gains.
However, data suggest that engagement with health and climate change could be declining across key sectors, including government and the media.
The report says “the powerful and trusted leadership of the health community could hold the key to reversing these concerning trends and making people’s wellbeing, health, and survival a central priority of political and financial agendas”.
“The engagement of health professionals at all levels of climate change decision making will be pivotal in informing the redirection of efforts and financial resources away from activities that jeopardise people’s health towards supporting healthy populations, prosperous economies, and a safer future,” it says.
But the report highlights gaps in the health sector capacity to step up, including inadequate education and training for health professionals.
“Public health professionals have a crucial role in developing and implementing health-promoting adaptation and mitigation interventions,” says the report. “However, the integration of climate change education and training is largely not mandated in public health curricula, leaving many public health professionals ill-prepared for this purpose.”
The report stresses the importance of engaging with, respecting, and elevating the knowledge and leadership of Indigenous peoples and frontline communities in the design and implementation of health and climate change policies, to ensure that they can protect people’s health and avoid unintended harms.
“These communities are often the ones most affected by the actions needed to tackle climate change and, in many cases, hold the key to their effective implementation.”
Fossil fuels
As of March this year, the strategies of the world’s largest 114 oil and gas companies indicate that they are on a trajectory to exceed the share of greenhouse gas emissions compatible with 1·5°C by 59 percent in 2030 (up from 43% in November, 2016, and 52% in March, 2023) and 189 percent in 2040 (up from 120% in 2016 and 173% in 2023), on average.
The strategies of 33 of these companies put them on track to exceeding their 1·5°C-compatible share of emissions by 300 percent in 2040.
Eight of the largest nine companies are state-owned national oil and gas companies, which, together, are projected to generate 30 percent of global production in 2040, exceeding their 1·5°C-compatible share by 226 percent.
The phase-out of coal is particularly important in the transition to a healthy future, not only because of its high greenhouse gas intensity but also because of the nearly 980, 000 deaths associated with coal combustion annually, says the report.
The Lancet Countdown: tracking progress on health and climate change was established the same year the Paris Agreement entered into force, to monitor the health impacts and opportunities of the world’s response to this landmark agreement.
The collaboration brings together over 300 multidisciplinary researchers and health professionals from around the world and is supported through strategic core funding from Wellcome.
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