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    We over re-act to many things. Here in FNQ we over re-act to dengue fever, marine stingers, snakes and spiders. We collectively over re-act to fear for our childrens safety and hygiene.

    We are letting fear win.

    We have nothing to fear but fear itself as they say.

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    What’s the evidence for “In general the effect with most viruses is that they usually become less aggressive with time – not more”. I’ve been speaking with a virologist, Professor John Oxford (Professor of Virology at Barts and The London, Queen Mary’s School of Medicine and Dentistry) and he has been advising that influenza generally “hots up” when you pass it through a hundred ferrets, and you get a similar thing in people, as the virus is so prone to mutation. June 18 article in New England Journal of Medicine, The Signature Features of Influenza Pandemics, talks about the more severe second waves in 1981 and again in 1968.
    Agree that this is a “repackaged” H1, but again the virologists tell me that the majority of the population have not been previously exposed and have no underlying immunity. It is very early days – North America has only had about 8 weeks experience, and it appears that people over 60 may have some immunity from similar previous strains, but people who are younger do not.
    The argument for containment strategies (and the arguments against) were nicely presented in yesterday’s ECDC summary was to try an flatten or delay the peak in demand for health services, although they acknowledged that US in general didn’t seem to be overstretched in their SUMMER. Figures out of New York City (one of the hardest hit) show about 10% of people needing hospitalisation need mechanical ventilation.
    Sounds like all eyes are on the southern hemisphere to see how we manage.


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