Introduction by Croakey: The Albanese Government’s re-election for a second term is “not a moment for pure celebration”, says the Pacific Islands Climate Action Network. “It is a moment of urgency, to arm ourselves with the facts, as the Band-Aids on open wounds will not heal the harm to the Pacific.”
In an analysis of the Australian election results, the Network says that while an Albanese-led Government is a “better outcome than a Dutton-led Coalition”, which may have seen significant weakening of climate action, the “Albanese’s Government’s current policies will exceed the 1.5°C survival target for the Pacific, and enhance militarisation of our oceans”.
The analysis examines Australia’s continued expansion of, and reliance on, fossil fuels, gaps in climate justice and the impact of Australia’s domestic policies on Pacific peoples.
“Australia’s simultaneous pursuit of new and expanded fossil fuel projects creates a fundamental conflict with the principles and objectives of a Just Transition,” the Network writes.
Below, in a post-election edition of the Pacific Islands focus column, PhD candidate Isabelle Zhu-Maguire shares reactions from Pacific leaders to the Australian Labor Party’s win, emphasising the need for strong and focused action on climate change, foreign aid and development.
The quotable?
If the bid to co-host COP31 is successful, the UN’s climate conference would provide an enormous opportunity for the Pacific region to put ambitious climate action back on Labor’s agenda.”
Isabelle Zhu-Maguire writes:
Now that the Australian Labor Party is so comfortably back in the driver’s seat, what do the Pacific Islands have to gain – or lose – from a second Albanese term?
As reported in my pre-election edition of ‘Pacific Islands focus‘, the region was not a focus of the federal election campaign. However, despite that silence, the Pacific Islands have a significant stake in the results of the Australian election.
Reactions from the Pacific
Prior to the Australian election, the few Pacific Island leaders who shared their perspectives on the election showed support for a Labor win.
Papua New Guinea’s foreign minister Justin Tkatchenko said he had “personal” hope for a second Albanese term, telling the ABC “why would you want to change something that is working well?”.
Several Pacific leaders have since offered warm congratulations to Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.
PNG’s Prime Minister James Marape said it is “deeply meaningful that Prime Minister Albanese leads the same party that supported [PNG’s] peaceful transition to independence”.
President for Palau, Surangel Whipps Jr, called the election a “win” for the Pacific.
“The Albanese Government has done a fantastic job I think, in bringing the Pacific together, bringing Pacific leaders together, and also bringing up Pacific issues,” Whipps Jr told ABC’s Nesia Daily program. “We’re going to ensure that we together host COP31 in Australia and bring the focus to the Pacific, which is very much needed.”
Fiji’s Prime Minister, Sitiveni Rabuka, congratulated his “friend” Albanese on Facebook, reiterating that Australia and Fiji are “vuvale”, the Fijian word for family.
Salā Dr George Carter, Senior Fellow and Deputy Head of the Department of Pacific Affairs at The Australian National University (ANU), called the Albanese election a “relief” for the Pacific Islands.
Adjunct Associate Professor Tess Newton Cain, Griffith University, told Pacific News Service (PINA) that she expects the second Labor term to be “more of the same” but University of Canterbury’s Pro-Vice Chancellor-Pacific Steven Ratuva told PINA he expects Australia’s role in regional security and aid to increase, given the US retreat from international aid.
Climate change
A far-cry from 2022, the 2025 Australian federal election was not a climate election. For the Pacific Islands, where climate change remains a terrifying reality, this is likely a big concern.
Speaking at a clean energy conference in Sydney in April, Palau’s President Surangel Whipps Jr urged the Coalition to support Labor’s plan for Australia to co-host COP31 with the Pacific Islands in 2026. He made reference to Peter Dutton’s highly inappropriate mocking of Pacific Islanders in 2015, as having “sea water lapping at their door”.
If the bid to co-host COP31 is successful, the UN’s climate conference would provide an enormous opportunity for the Pacific region to put ambitious climate action back on Labor’s agenda. We will likely know the results of the bid in June.
Whipps Jr singled out the maintenance of the COP31 bid as being a key win for Pacific regionalism.
It is clear that Australians have rejected Dutton’s nuclear energy proposal – likely to the relief of many of the Pacific anti-nuclear advocates who have long protested that nuclear power is not a solution to the climate crisis.
I also note that continued support for the Climate 200-backed independents and growing support for the Greens indicates climate change still influences Australian voters.
Hopefully Labor’s comfortable majority in the Parliament, combined with the need to still make alliances with The Greens in the Senate, means they will be willing to be bolder on climate change and not just continue the business as usual approach that has come to disappoint the Pacific Islands.
Aid and development assistance
In terms of development, many in the Pacific are likely relieved to see the ALP score a second term.
Whilst Australian aid to the Pacific does often remain relatively stable, Liberal governments have a track record of cutting aid. An Albanese victory means avoiding Dutton’s threatened ‘efficiency’, which many had predicted would lead to cuts in development spending.
Interestingly, as I reported in the the Lowy Institute’s The Interpreter, in the twilight hours of the campaign the Coalition pledged to increase the loan total for the ‘Australian Infrastructure Financing Facility’ for the Pacific from $3 billion to $5 billion.
However, this did not make the media splash the Opposition hoped. And, as analysts had earlier noted, the Coalition had a track record of significant, often brutal cuts to aid delivery and spending, with doubts Dutton would be much different.
I do also note that aid to the Pacific did increase in Labor’s last budget despite overall spending on aid remaining constant. To me, this signals Labor being more strategic in its spending, focusing on where Canberra’s security concerns lie. This likely means continued good things for Pacific development budgets.
Alongside development, analysts have also suggested a Labor Government is also beneficial for Pacific migration pathways with Labor schemes like the “already incredibly popular Pacific Engagement Visa (PEV)” and changes to the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility scheme, which allow families to stay together, more likely to be maintained.
Solidarity with First Nations people
Dutton’s attempts at culture wars have also been rejected by many Australians.
In stark contrast to Dutton’s supposed stubbornness about not standing in-front of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander flags, Albanese’s Acknowledgement of Country at the start of his victory acceptance speech was received with a thunderous applause.
However, I posit that the maintenance of Acknowledgements of Country is likely not enough to convince many First Nations activists in the Pacific Islands, who have long shown solidarity with Indigenous Australians, that the incumbent Australian Government is progressive on First Nations issues.
Albanese’s unwillingness to continue the journey from Voice to Treaty will come to the dismay of Pacific Islanders who supported the Voice.
Pacific Island states people have also suggested that Australia should do more to include Indigenous perspectives in their foreign policy to better improve relations with Pacific Islands – particularly in Melanesia.
Regionalism
Following the 2022 election, Foreign Minister Penny Wong went to Fiji only four days after the victory, and gloriously – and perhaps infamously – proclaimed the new Australian Government was now willing to “listen”.
This was followed by three years of repeating the “Pacific Family” rhetoric, which has now been all but mocked by many in Pacific academia and activism, who argue that Albanese’s willingness to participate in multilateralism is not enough to prove familial bonds, particularly while new coal mines open in Australia.
No such trip has been seen or announced this time around. Prime Minister Albanese is gearing up for a trip to Indonesia in the coming days.
Whilst the Pacific Island leaders may have expressed “relief”, I do think we can expect Pacific Island climate activists to become more vocal now that the ALP is so comfortably in charge and thus they no longer have to throw undying loyalty behind Albanese to avoid a Dutton-induced climate disaster.
In particular, I expect severe criticism of Labor’s approval of new fossil fuel projects, which largely flew under the radar last year.
The Pacific Islands continue to face climate change induced disasters, ecological damage, disease outbreaks and infrastructure issues.
From Australia, they want respect, recognition, support and the celebration of their cultures and practices. I think they are more likely to get all this from an Albanese Government but will not be satisfied with the lack of ambition we have seen from Labor as of late.
To gain the loyalty of the Pacific, Albanese’s second term will have to be marked with strong, decisive action on climate change and development.
About the author
Isabelle Zhu-Maguire is a PhD candidate at the Coral Bell School of Asia and Pacific Affairs, Department of International Relations within the Australian National University. Her thesis investigates the ways in which Australia listens and responds to the climate advocacy of Pacific Island Nations.
She has conducted extensive research into the experiences of women in Afghanistan and their perspectives and realities living through conflict, oppression, and climate change.
Isabelle has also been advocate for greater youth inclusion within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
Croakey thanks and acknowledges Isabelle Zhu-Maguire for providing this column as a probono service to our readers.
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