As we head towards federal budget week, The Guardian has published a timely survey of climate scientists that, in a rational world, would be the over-arching framing for political, media and public discussions.
The column also covers the latest developments in global health, and the political and commercial determinants of health. We also bring details of upcoming events, as well as news about awards, appointments and opportunities.
The quotable?
The opposite of poverty is not wealth. The opposite of poverty is justice.”
Climate threats
Earlier this year, The Guardian contacted every available lead author or review editor of all Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports since 2018, asking for their views on what lies ahead. Almost half replied – 380 out of 843.
Almost 80 percent respondents expect at least 2.5C of global heating this century, while almost half anticipate at least 3C. Only six percent thought the internationally agreed 1.5C limit would be met.
Many of the scientists envisage a “semi-dystopian” future, with famines, conflicts and mass migration, driven by heatwaves, wildfires, floods and storms of an intensity and frequency far beyond those already experienced.
A world that is hotter by 2.5C, 3C, or worse, takes us into truly uncharted territory, reports The Guardian. With 3C of global heating, cities including Shanghai, Rio de Janeiro, Miami and The Hague end up below sea level.
“It is hard to fully map this new world,” wrote Environment Editor Damian Carrington. “Our intricately connected global society means the impact of climate shocks in one place can cascade around the world, through food price spikes, broken supply chains, and migration.”
Professor James Renwick, at Victoria University of Wellington in Aotearoa/New Zealand told The Guardian: “It is the biggest threat humanity has faced, with the potential to wreck our social fabric and way of life. It has the potential to kill millions, if not billions, through starvation, war over resources, displacement. None of us will be unaffected by the devastation.”
“I think we are headed for major societal disruption within the next five years,” said Gretta Pecl, at the University of Tasmania. “[Authorities] will be overwhelmed by extreme event after extreme event, food production will be disrupted.
Asked why the world’s response has been so slow and inadequate, almost three-quarters of IPCC experts blamed lack of political will, and 60 percent also blamed vested corporate interests.
The capture of politicians and the media by vastly wealthy fossil fuel companies and petrostates, whose oil, gas and coal are the root cause of the climate crisis, was frequently cited. Disinformation was also widely cited as a major concern, in polarising society and compounding poor public understanding of climate risk and solutions.
“Fight for a fairer world.” That call to action from one French scientist reflected the thoughts of many, who said the huge gap between the world’s rich and poor was a giant barrier to climate action.
As Australia head towards federal budget week, will politicians and media be framing the issues through this lens?
Let’s hope they surprise us.
The Guardian: Hopeless and broken; why the world’s top climate scientists are in despair
The Guardian: World’s top climate scientists expect global heating to blast past 1.5C target
BBC reports that massive flooding and landslides triggered by days of heavy rain in Brazil’s southernmost state have killed at least 85 people, according to local authorities.
Over two-thirds of Rio Grande do Sul’s 497 municipalities have been affected, leaving more than 150,000 people displaced, local authorities said. More than 130 people are still missing.
First Nations health and wellbeing
New Matilda: Seven Months On From The Voice: So, What Now? By Katie Kiss
“The Referendum outcome exposed the unfinished business between First Nations peoples and the Australian community. It highlighted the need for a reframed, respectful, and reconciled relationship that builds a ‘village’ capable of transcending the division and disunity stoked in the lead-up to the referendum. A relationship grounded in truth, justice, and healing for First Nations and the Australian nation.”
SBS: Indigenous women are the most impacted by violence, but are still fighting to be heard
For decades, Aboriginal women have fought for systemic reform and for governments to address racism and bias in the institutional responses to violence, writes Dr Hannah McGlade.
Global health
Health Policy Watch: World’s Three Largest Health Philanthropies Join Forces in $300 Million Initiative to Support Innovation in Developing Countries
The Novo Nordisk Foundation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and Wellcome Trust have announced a new partnership, committing $300 million over three years to stimulate innovative research in developing countries into three of the world’s most critical global health challenges and their interlinkages – including climate change, infectious diseases and antimicrobial resistance.
Politico: The CDC is locked in a power struggle with key states and agriculture players as it tries to better track the virus and prevent another potential pandemic.
On 8 May, the World Health Organization made the following statement:
Now to the United States, and the outbreak of H5N1 avian influenza among dairy cattle.
So far, 36 dairy herds have been infected in nine states. Only one human case has been reported, at least 220 people are being monitored and at least 30 have been tested.
However, many more people have been exposed to infected animals, and it is important that all those exposed are tested or monitored, and receive care if needed.
So far, the virus does not show signs of having adapted to spread among humans, but more surveillance is needed.
The virus has been detected in raw milk in the US, but preliminary tests show that pasteurisation kills the virus.
WHO’s standing advice in all countries is that people should consume pasteurized milk.
Based on the available information, WHO continues to assess the public health risk posed by H5N1 avian influenza to be low, and low-to-moderate for people exposed to infected animals.
In recent years, H5N1 has spread widely among wild birds, poultry, land and marine mammals, and now among dairy cattle.
Since 2021, there have been 28 reported cases in humans, although no human-to-human transmission has been documented in that time.
WHO has a strong system for monitoring influenza around the world, through a network of influenza centres in 130 countries, 7 Collaborating Centres and 12 reference laboratories with the capacities and biosafety requirements to deal with H5 viruses.
We also have the Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Framework, to support the rapid development and equitable distribution of vaccines in case of an influenza pandemic.
However, no similar system exists for other pathogens – a gap that WHO Member States are now seeking to close through the Pandemic Agreement.
The outbreak of H5N1 in dairy cattle also demonstrates the importance of a One Health approach that recognizes the intimate links between the health of humans, animals and our environment.
These two systems – one to prevent outbreaks and pandemics through a One Health approach, and another to respond to them by sharing vaccines – are two vital elements of the Pandemic Agreement that WHO Member States are negotiating as we speak.”
A proposal to recognize investment in breastfeeding as a carbon offset
The authors write: “Achieving global nutrition targets for breastfeeding would realize far greater reductions in greenhouse gas emissions than decarbonising commercial milk formula manufacturing. New metrics and financing mechanisms are needed to achieve the health, sustainability and equity gains from more optimal infant and young child feeding. Properly valuing crucial care and environmental resources in global and national measurement systems would redirect international financial resources away from expanding carbon-emitting activities, and towards what really matters, that is, health for all. Doing so should start with considering breastfeeding as the highest quality, local, sustainable first-food system for generations to come.”
COVID
See the thread on X/Twitter about preventing COVID, and see the Canadian guidelines for post-COVID, including mask-wearing.
News GP: What are the most reliable rapid antigen tests? A new study has analysed 26 RATs from Australia and Canada, finding only six could effectively detect the lowest 
ABC: Hundreds of patients died after catching COVID in Victorian hospitals, new data shows
“For months doctors and public health experts have been warning that too many patients are catching COVID in Australian hospitals with sometimes devastating consequences — though timely statistics are difficult to access because health departments do not publish them.
Now, new data shows thousands of patients caught COVID in Victorian public hospitals in the past two years — and hundreds died — fuelling concerns that hospitals are not taking strong enough precautions against airborne viruses, and calls for stronger leadership from the Department of Health.”
The BMJ: What do we know about COVID-19’s effects on the gut?
Sugar tax
From Aotearoa/New Zealand to Canberra, public health experts are sending a clear message to governments.
#AusPol
After receiving 308 submissions and conducting two public hearings, a Senate inquiry into the Government’s vaping reforms has recommended the bill be passed.
The Australian Council on Action on Smoking and Health has today published an open letter with 58 signatories from leading health organisations including the Australian Medical Association, the National Heart Foundation, and Cancer Council Australia, as well as Commissioners for Children and Young People and parents organisations around the nation. It calls for MPs to support the upcoming Vaping Reforms Bill.
Read Universities Australia statement.
Food Ministers’ Meeting communiqué – 3 May 2024
See the petition
Health reform
Social Justice Report 2023: Human Rights for Mental Health Consumers in NSW
Amongst other things, his report includes ideas for consumers to take action around discrimination in the media, in a public place, while looking for work and while at work.
AHHA statement: “The report identifies that governments have a significant role in facilitating this digital transformation, including through regulatory settings, digital infrastructure, coordination across jurisdictions and funding policy. However, it also cautions that the ease with which these technologies can be rolled out risks a costly expansion of low-value services.”
Conference Watch
This week, we feature the American Psychiatric Association conference in New York, the Royal Australasian College of Surgeons Annual Scientific Congress, and the Credentialed Pharmacists Conference.
#CroakeyREAD
Media Matters
Appointments, awards and opportunities
Events upcoming
Editor’s note: Additional content was added to this column after initial publication.
